How did the “Experts” Miss the Obvious?
§ UNBIASED OPTIMISM – Apr 11,
2006 – Peterson’s Institute for International Economics – “…With continued
strong productivity growth and some recovery of participation, potential GDP
growth should be in the 3 to 3¼ percent range…”
§ ROSY OUTLOOK FROM SAN FRANCISCO FED
– Nov 11, 2006 – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco – “…cooling in housing markets with solid growth in the
remaining 95 percent of the economy outside of residential construction…”
§
IMF BEHIND THE CURVE – Jul 25, 2007 – IMF – “…The strong global expansion is continuing,
and projections for global growth in both 2007 and 2008 have been revised up to
5.2 percent…”
Bankruptcy waves
tend to follow times of indiscriminate high yield issuance
* Data provided by www.bankruptcydata.com, JP Morgan, Thomson
Reuters and the Edward I. Altman-NYU Salomon Center
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