TRADEX
GLOBAL INTERNAL COMMENTARY
Don't panic yet, but the weekly jobless
claims number was higher than expected, and the 4-week moving average rose to
360,750 from 352,750 last week. The
4-week average, which is less volatile, really is the number to watch. It still feels as if the layoffs are pretty
much done, but companies are just not confident enough to expand at this
point. The continuing claims, which were
up 11k, is also concerning as more people are out of work for extended periods
of time. CPI, which increased by 1.6%
YoY, shows tame inflation and very little ‘Fed Printed’ money hitting Main
Street. I still believe that we will see
Washington and the Fed changing strategy to get money directly into the economy
by direct lending, and not waiting for banks to get aggressive with
lending. This could possibly have a
major effect on employment. As I see it,
financial assets rising do not put people back to work! Keep nimble out there - Michael Beattie
EXTERNAL RESEARCH COMMENTARY
Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose for the first time in three weeks, returning to levels seen prior to the holiday period and indicating little change in the pace of firings. Jobless claims increased by 20,000 to 362,000 in the week ended Feb. 16, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 355,000. The number of applications in three states and the District of Columbia was estimated because of the holiday-shortened week, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released. Companies are maintaining their staffing levels even amid concern that rising gasoline prices and a January tax increase will damp consumer spending. Looming cuts in government spending also threaten to slow growth, a sign that hiring may be limited in coming months.
Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose for the first time in three weeks, returning to levels seen prior to the holiday period and indicating little change in the pace of firings. Jobless claims increased by 20,000 to 362,000 in the week ended Feb. 16, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 355,000. The number of applications in three states and the District of Columbia was estimated because of the holiday-shortened week, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released. Companies are maintaining their staffing levels even amid concern that rising gasoline prices and a January tax increase will damp consumer spending. Looming cuts in government spending also threaten to slow growth, a sign that hiring may be limited in coming months.
“It’s
a stable level of claims,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas
in New York, which
predicted claims would rise to 365,000. “The main issue is the pace of hiring
is not picking up. Businesses feel very uncertain about the outlook.” The cost
of living was little changed in January for a second month as a drop in energy
costs offset gains in clothing, hotel rates and airline fares, another report
from the Labor Department showed today. Over the past 12 months, the
consumer- price index increased
1.6 percent, the smallest year-over-year gain since July.
Tradex Global Advisory Services, LLC
investorrelations@thetradexgroup.com
203-863-1500
@Tradex_Global
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