TRADEX
GLOBAL INTERNAL COMMENTARY
Jobless claims drop 27k to 341k and
beat even the lowest forecasts by economists. The four-week moving average was slightly
higher at 352k (this is a more accurate number). Companies feel more confident not to do any
additional layoffs, but at this rate unemployment is likely to hang around at
8%. Way too high to see meaningful
interest rate hikes! I still maintain that
printing money only to be stuck at the Fed, or in a bank vault, will not get the
private sector going. I think that the
Fed and Washington will come out with some more direct fiscal stimulus where
they lend directly to the private sector or lend against some form of IOU. The employment picture is just improving too
slowly and I think something will change soon to unleash the sleepy animal
spirits in the private sector. Either
way, this number is not too bad. Keep
nimble, from Miami...Michael Beattie
EXTERNAL RESEARCH COMMENTARY
Claims for jobless benefits plunged last week, showing U.S. employers have little need to trim staff as demand improves. Applications for unemployment insurance payments decreased by 27,000 to 341,000 in the week ended Feb. 9, fewer than any of the 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected, according to Labor Department data issued today in Washington. Another report showed consumer sentiment last week climbed to the highest level in a month. A drop in firings will probably help workers feel more secure in their jobs, which, combined with a housing-market rebound and rising stock prices, may bolster consumer confidence and in turn spending. Sustained pickups in hiring and incomes would ensure that households have the means to overcome the burden of a higher payroll tax. “The labor market is improving, but only at a very steady pace,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, who had the lowest forecast in the Bloomberg survey. “What we need is an acceleration in hiring to move the unemployment rate lower.” The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 35.9 in the period ended Feb. 10 from minus 36.3 in the prior week, another report showed. The gauge advanced for a second consecutive week, led by waning pessimism about the economy. Shares were little changed as the drop in claims tempered concern over disappointing economic data from overseas. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,521.12 at 10:52 a.m. in New York after reports showed economies in Europe and Japan shrank more than forecast in the fourth quarter.
Claims for jobless benefits plunged last week, showing U.S. employers have little need to trim staff as demand improves. Applications for unemployment insurance payments decreased by 27,000 to 341,000 in the week ended Feb. 9, fewer than any of the 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected, according to Labor Department data issued today in Washington. Another report showed consumer sentiment last week climbed to the highest level in a month. A drop in firings will probably help workers feel more secure in their jobs, which, combined with a housing-market rebound and rising stock prices, may bolster consumer confidence and in turn spending. Sustained pickups in hiring and incomes would ensure that households have the means to overcome the burden of a higher payroll tax. “The labor market is improving, but only at a very steady pace,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, who had the lowest forecast in the Bloomberg survey. “What we need is an acceleration in hiring to move the unemployment rate lower.” The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 35.9 in the period ended Feb. 10 from minus 36.3 in the prior week, another report showed. The gauge advanced for a second consecutive week, led by waning pessimism about the economy. Shares were little changed as the drop in claims tempered concern over disappointing economic data from overseas. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,521.12 at 10:52 a.m. in New York after reports showed economies in Europe and Japan shrank more than forecast in the fourth quarter.
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