TRV Weekly Commentary
Week Ending 12 Aug 2014
Week Ending 12 Aug 2014
Comment:
Week-over-week, the mortgage
basis widened 1 bp on continued tapering and a slight uptick in volatility. Our
fair value estimate of the yield spread between current coupon MBS and the 5yr
is 157 bps, while the market closed at 158 bps on Aug 12. We expect the basis
to widen another 10bps, and maintain a short position on an expectation of
increased issuance and decreased Fed purchases. The middle of the coupon stack
underperformed this week as 4s ended 2 ticks wider vs their 5yr hedges. On a
positive note, roll markets are stronger this 48-hour cycle, with rolls trading
at 11 1/16 for 4s and 10 5/16 for 3.5s on August 12th.
Our position in the G2 3.5 fly
has appreciated 3 ½ ticks this week, and we continue to look for further
appreciation.
The Refi and Purchase indices
dropped 60 and 4 points, respectively, helping to ease prepay concerns as rates
continue to trend downward. The benign prepayment environment, declining
volatility, and the reach for yield have helped IOs hold up despite the trend
in rates. Additionally, hedged carry
remains high, with 3.5s of 2012 at 5 ticks per month. Although at historic
highs, IO multiples have upside as prepayment fears are subdued and there are
relatively few attractive investments in fixed income.
Noteworthy:
Market participants widely expect rates to climb due
to an improving economy and Fed tapering. Despite these circumstances, the 10yr
yield has fallen 55 bps from its December 2013 peak. A contributing factor to
the rate decline is the wide rate differential between US Treasuries and
European bonds as the ECB continues its dovish policy. Bill O’Donnell, head of
US Government bond strategy at RBS, summed up the phenomenon in a Bloomberg
interview: “The path to higher rates, which we expect in the near term, is
going to remain a challenging one just because rates are going to remain low in
Europe for a long time and our interest-rate differentials are already pretty
wide.”[1] The current 15 bps of yield spread between Spanish
and US 10yr bonds vindicates O’Donnell’s statement. Rates may continue to fall given foreign
demand for Treasuries.
Regards,
Tradex Global Advisory Services, LLC
investorrelations@thetradexgroup.com
203-863-1500
@Tradex_Global
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