TRADEX
GLOBAL INTERNAL COMMENTARY
Jobless
claims decreased by 12k last week to 377k, with the prior week being revised up
by 6k. The number was slightly better than expectations, but the 4 week
average rose to 378k. Continuing claims rose by 34k, but the number of people
receiving extended emergency unemployment insurance dropped by 100k. Most of
the recent significant economic reports have been disappointing. Although this jobless claims number looks ok
at face value, prior week revisions continue to be a problem, leaving us mostly
unchanged. The prior week revisions for most economic indicators that we track
have been tending to lean towards more economic weakness than is seen in the
headline number. We are very cautious after an ugly May and are adding defensive
protection on the recent 4%+ rally. The market liked China’s rate cut this
morning, but Greece & Spain remain on the front-burner…Keep Nimble! –
Richard Travia
EXTERNAL RESEARCH
COMMENTARY
Fewer
Americans applied for unemployment insurance payments last week, indicating
limited progress in the labor market after a two-month slowdown in hiring.
First-time claims for jobless benefits fell by 12,000 to 377,000 in the week
ended June 2 from a revised 389,000 the prior week that was higher than initially
estimated, the Labor Department said today. The median estimate of 49
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for 378,000 claims. The number of
people receiving extended payments plunged. The claims figures may ease concern
of further labor market weakness after a report last week showed employers in
May added the fewest workers in a year. While sustained demand is encouraging
companies to maintain headcounts, stronger sales may be required to prompt a
pickup in hiring. "It reinforces the slowing momentum in the job
market," Sean Incremona, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said
before the report. "We're still in a moderate recovery and a lot of the
employment data we saw earlier in the year might have overstated conditions. We
might be coming back down to Earth." Estimates ranged from 367,000 to
390,000 after an initially reported 383,000 in the previous week, according to
the Bloomberg survey. The four-week moving average of claims, a less-volatile
measure, climbed to 377,750, the highest in a month, from 376,000. The number
of people continuing to collect jobless benefits increased 34,000 in the week
ended May 26 to 3.29 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the
number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.
Tradex Global Advisory Services, LLC
investorrelations@thetradexgroup.com
203-863-1500
@Tradex_Global
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