Thursday, June 7, 2012

Tradex Global Commentary: Weekly Jobless Claims


TRADEX GLOBAL INTERNAL COMMENTARY

Jobless claims decreased by 12k last week to 377k, with the prior week being revised up by 6k. The number was slightly better than expectations, but the 4 week average rose to 378k. Continuing claims rose by 34k, but the number of people receiving extended emergency unemployment insurance dropped by 100k. Most of the recent significant economic reports have been disappointing.  Although this jobless claims number looks ok at face value, prior week revisions continue to be a problem, leaving us mostly unchanged. The prior week revisions for most economic indicators that we track have been tending to lean towards more economic weakness than is seen in the headline number. We are very cautious after an ugly May and are adding defensive protection on the recent 4%+ rally. The market liked China’s rate cut this morning, but Greece & Spain remain on the front-burner…Keep Nimble! – Richard Travia

EXTERNAL RESEARCH COMMENTARY
Fewer Americans applied for unemployment insurance payments last week, indicating limited progress in the labor market after a two-month slowdown in hiring. First-time claims for jobless benefits fell by 12,000 to 377,000 in the week ended June 2 from a revised 389,000 the prior week that was higher than initially estimated, the Labor Department said today. The median estimate of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for 378,000 claims. The number of people receiving extended payments plunged. The claims figures may ease concern of further labor market weakness after a report last week showed employers in May added the fewest workers in a year. While sustained demand is encouraging companies to maintain headcounts, stronger sales may be required to prompt a pickup in hiring. "It reinforces the slowing momentum in the job market," Sean Incremona, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. "We're still in a moderate recovery and a lot of the employment data we saw earlier in the year might have overstated conditions. We might be coming back down to Earth." Estimates ranged from 367,000 to 390,000 after an initially reported 383,000 in the previous week, according to the Bloomberg survey. The four-week moving average of claims, a less-volatile measure, climbed to 377,750, the highest in a month, from 376,000. The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits increased 34,000 in the week ended May 26 to 3.29 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.


Tradex Global Advisory Services, LLC
investorrelations@thetradexgroup.com
203-863-1500
@Tradex_Global

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