Unemployment Applications - "The Glass Half-Full"

TRADEX GLOBAL INTERNAL COMMENTARY

The number of Americans filing for unemployment was little changed from the previous week.  This brought the July/August average to the lowest level since March.  Claims were up 2k, in line with the forecasts of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.  This is the natural progression, as the employment numbers also have been trending higher.  There are still many hurdles in the economy, but today we are going to look at “the glass half-full” again.  Keep nimble and enjoy the rest of summer. – Michael Beattie

EXTERNAL RESEARCH COMMENTARY

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits was little changed last week, bringing the average over the past month to the lowest level since late March, a sign the labor market has stabilized after employment picked up in July. Jobless claims climbed by 2,000 to 366,000 in the week ended Aug. 11, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an increase to 365,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, dropped to 363,750, the fewest since the week ended March 31. Employers may be limiting firings as the pace of sales warrants keeping current staff levels, which will probably underpin consumer spending. A pickup in demand and an agreement to forestall the fiscal cliff of tax increases and government spending cuts following the presidential election will probably be needed to induce an increase in hiring. “It’s certainly further evidence the labor market doesn’t look like it’s in danger of falling off a cliff,” said Jeremy Lawson, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “At the same time, the hiring rate is still fairly soft.” Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 350,000 to 375,000. The Labor Department revised the previous week’s figure up to 364,000 from an initially reported 361,000. A spokesman for the Labor Department said there was nothing unusual in the data last week.

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