MBA Mortgage Applications, Week of 7/30-8/3

TRADEX GLOBAL INTERNAL COMMENTARY

Mortgage applications fell 1.8% last week, and refinancing applications rose to its highest level in three years.  The share of applications for refi’s held steady at 81%, still the highest level since January.  HARP 2 is working, as less credit-worthy borrowers and those owning homes with negative equity are allowed to refi at lower rates.  I read an article this morning that said 1/3rd of all Fannie & Freddie refinancing in June was attributable to HARP 2.  The proportion of those refinancing with very high LTVs also increased significantly.  Perhaps this indicates that we are not yet at the peak of refinance-ability? New home mortgage applications are still not picking up in a major way, but the shadow inventory is being decreased significantly.  Rates remain at historic lows and likely are here to stay for awhile…and we are monitoring this space very closely because of our significant exposure to mortgage IO derivatives. – Richard Travia

EXTERNAL RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 3, 2012. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from a week earlier.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity was unchanged from last week at 81 percent of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.0 percent from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 3.76 percent from 3.75 percent, with points decreasing to 0.46 from  0.51 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) increased to 4.04 percent from 4.01 percent, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 3.54 percent from 3.52 percent, with points decreasing to 0.49 from 0.55 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.08 percent from 3.09 percent, with points decreasing to 0.41 from 0.49 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 2.72 percent from 2.73 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

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