TRADEX GLOBAL INTERNAL
COMMENTARY
Jobless claims fell by 9,000 last
week to 346k, down from 355k the prior period. The median estimates from
economists were just short at 345k. I have said this the last few weeks, but
unfortunately need to repeat myself; firings are leveling off and slightly
declining, but we are only seeing 150-200k new jobs, and that is not enough to
really get us excited. Contrary to many, I believe that higher rates will have
more of an effect on the economy. We also believe that the Fed may have to use
different language in August or September if GDP and employment continues to
disappoint. Keep nimble – Michael Beattie
EXTERNAL
RESEARCH COMMENTARY
Jobless claims decreased by 9,000
to 346,000 in the week ended June 22 from a revised 355,000 the prior period,
the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate in a
Bloomberg survey of economists called for 345,000 claims. Smaller
reductions in headcounts indicate employers are confident enough that demand
will be sustained as the housing market improves and consumers grow more
optimistic. Bigger gains in sales may encourage companies to step up hiring and
help reduce an unemployment rate the Federal Reserve says “remains
elevated.” “The broad trend still remains lower” for jobless claims, said
Jacob Oubina, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York. “That’s
going to continue to support net payroll gains.” Stock-index futures
maintained gains after the data on jobless claims and another report showing consumer
spending rebounded in May. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
expiring in September rose 0.6 percent to 1,604.7 at 8:41 a.m. in New
York. Household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the
economy, rose 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent decline the prior month that was
the biggest since September 2009, according to the Commerce Department’s
figures. Incomes advanced 0.5 percent, more than projected.
Tradex Global Advisory Services, LLC
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